35th ISF: Frontiers in Forecasting
The International Symposium on Forecasting will be held in Riverside, California in June 2015. This will be the 35th year of this conference, attracting the world’s leading forecasting researchers,...
View ArticleComplexity increases forecast error
Complex models are more popular than simple ones among researchers, forecasters, and clients. The popularity of complexity may be due to incentives. Less accurate Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong...
View ArticlePrediction isn’t a hopeless enterprise
It’s possible to get better at forecasting. Research offers some insights into the factors that make a difference to become a “super forecaster”. Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and...
View ArticlePredicting events using machine learning
Kira Radinsky has garnered international recognition for her work forecasting real-world events, like disease outbreaks and riots. She helped build a predictive system that combined newspaper articles,...
View ArticleImprove forecast accuracy with signals intelligence
Past research has found that publicly available data can be used to accurately forecast events such as political crises and disease outbreaks. However, in many cases, relevant data are not available,...
View ArticleLokad adds forecasting with quantile grids
Big data solutions provider Lokad has introduced its second forecasting breakthrough. Quantile grids do not provide one demand forecast per product, but provide the entire probability distribution for...
View ArticleExecutive S&OP: Practical Thinking
Often the biggest obstacles to S&OP excellence stems from complexity: difficulty gathering data, too many meetings, a hard-to-govern process, or difficulty analyzing key data. “The change in...
View Article“Sales Forecasting by reps is dead”
Optimism and lateral thinking are the hallmark of a “closer” and the chief attributes of a lousy forecaster, one of the great paradoxes of sales. “Some would argue that forecasting is a necessary evil,...
View ArticleThree ways to give forecasters a boost
Need to boost forecast accuracy? Three factors have huge impact on the predictions: training, teams and tracking. It’s time to tee up! Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) sponsored...
View ArticleIIF’s Symposium on Forecasting in Santander
The renowned International Symposium on Forecasting will take place from June 19-22, 2016 at the Palace of La Magdalena in Santander, Spain. The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF), a...
View ArticleWhat’s Wrong with Demand Forecasting
A growing number of companies says their forecast accuracy, service levels and inventory efficiency metrics have hit a ceiling that they just can’t get past. Whether you read the analyst reports or...
View Article37th International Symposium on Forecasting
The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) will be hosting their annual conference in Cairns, Australia in June 2017. This will be the 37th year of hosting the premier forecasting conference,...
View ArticleLicence to Innovate Forecasting Models
The Bank of Canada has launched a multiyear effort to overhaul the sophisticated computer models it uses to forecast the economy after they failed to foreshadow the aftershocks of the global financial...
View ArticleMachine learning to make capacity planning decisions
Amazon has developed machine-learning driven models on how to forecast demand for its services and deploy infrastructure accordingly. Amazon Web Services has been using machine learning to anticipate...
View ArticleWhy experts often get predictions wrong
One of the problems with economic forecasting is that a small change in a few variables can make predictions almost impossibly complex. The maths can quickly become complicated. Part of the problem is...
View Article38th International Symposium on Forecasting
The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) will be hosting their annual conference in Boulder, USA in June 2018. The International Symposium on Forecasting attracts the world’s leading...
View ArticleEconomic forecasts may again be blind
In the current artificially propped market environment, the economic forecasts based on real economic, soft and financial indicators may fail massively. “The fact that the central bankers and the...
View Article39th International Symposium on Forecasting
The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) will be hosting their annual conference in Thessaloniki, Greece, from 16-19 June 2019. The International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) is the premier...
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